This proposal requests funding for the fourth and fifth years of a SERCA award. The candidate, Douglas Ewbank, has extensive research experience working on mortality and health in developing countries. During the first two years of the SERCA he has studied Alzheimer's disease through collaborative research. He has also developed preliminary models of the incidence and prevalence of Alzheimer's disease. During the third year he will be initiating collaborative research on utilization of nursing homes. The proposed research will involve two activities examining the demographic implications of medical breakthroughs for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease. The first is the development of a demographic model of the relationship between the incidence, prevalence and rate of progression of Alzheimer' s disease and the demand for nursing homes. The second activity will be the analysis of data on the determinants of the demand for nursing homes to estimate the parameters necessary for the demographic model. The Penn Population Studies Center (PSC), an NICHD- funded center, is one of the preeminent demographic research centers in the world. It has received NIA funding for postdoctoral fellows and to support the new Population Aging Research Center. Samuel Preston wills serve as mentor for this project. He is involved in several projects on the demography of aging. Ewbank will also be collaborating with several members of Penn's Alzheimer's Disease Center Core (ADCC), an NIA funded research center.